Anthropogenic climate change may push the Earth’s climate system beyond multiple critical thresholds, triggering abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions across a range of temporal and spatial scales. Crossing such tipping points could profoundly disrupt physical and biogeochemical processes, leading to largely unconstrained consequences that are not fully accounted for in current climate projections. These abrupt changes are thought to arise from the nonlinear and complex interactions between Earth system components. More importantly, interactions between different tipping elements may lead to cascading effects, potentially destabilizing multiple Earth system components. However, the full implications of surpassing these tipping points remain poorly understood, introducing significant and unquantified uncertainties to climate projections.
One of the most promising, yet underutilized, approaches to more comprehensively assess these uncertainties is the investigation of Earth’s geological past, comprising a large array of natural experiments in which the Earth system underwent profound transitions. Paleoclimate records provide the only direct observational evidence for the occurrence of Earth system tipping points, and can help assess the thresholds, triggers, and feedbacks that have governed these changes. Despite extensive research on past tipping points, a coordinated effort to synthesize this knowledge and integrate it into major climate programs is still lacking. The PAGES Working Group Investigating Modes of Past Abrupt Climate change and Tipping points (IMPACT) aims to provide a coordinated effort in synthesizing this knowledge.
Scope of the workshop
This will be the initial workshop of the PAGES IMPACT working group and aims to provide a first coordinated assessment of thresholds, abrupt climate changes, and tipping points in Earth’s geological past on multiple temporal and spatial scales. As paleoclimate records provide the only direct observational evidence for the occurrence of Earth system tipping points, this effort will provide improved constraints on their future likelihood and potential impacts. We invite contributions from researchers covering all Earth system components that exhibit abrupt changes and tipping points to initiate these efforts.
Important Dates
Registration Deadline for in person participation: 10th March 2026
Note: Due to space constraints, in-person participation is limited to 40 participants.
Registration Deadline for online participation: 31st March 2026
Workshop: 11th – 13th May 2026
