| Session 1 – Climate Variability and Change of Storms (convener: J. Pinto) |
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| 13:20 |
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations (PDF 4.4 MB) |
D. Stephenson |
| 13:50 |
An example of extra-tropically transitioning storms – Hurricane Gonzalo (PDF 2.4 MB) |
F. Feser |
| 14:05 |
Future projections of North Atlantic explosive cyclones simulated by the EC-Earth model |
M. Liberato |
| 14:30 |
Understanding the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks (PDF 1.7 MB) |
L. Shaffrey |
| 14:45 |
A Probabilistic View on Winter Storm Damages (PDF 1.2 MB) |
U. Ulbrich |
| 15:00 |
Was the extreme storm season 2013-14 over the North Atlantic and the UK triggered by changes in the West-Pacific Warm Pool? (PDF 2.4 MB) |
S. Wild |
| 15:15 |
On separating the forced response from variability in circulation changes over Europe (PDF 1.6 MB) |
T. Shepherd |
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| Session 2 – Synoptic- and Meso-scale Dynamics (convener: S. Gray) |
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| 16:00 |
Climatology of dry air intrusions and their relation to strong surface winds in extratropical cyclones (PDF 5.5 MB) |
S. Raveh-Rubin |
| 16:30 |
Joint occurrence of precipitation and wind extremes (PDF 2.4 MB) |
O. Martius |
| 16:45 |
The downstream impact of extratropical transition from an eddy kinetic energy perspective (PDF 3.2 MB) |
J. Keller |
| 17:00 |
The pivotal nature of merger and splitting in the cyclone life cycle (PDF 3.0 MB) |
S. Kew |
| 17:25 |
The importance of Atmospheric Rivers in the development of explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic basin |
A. Ramos |
| 17:40 |
What factors govern the magnitude and variability of moisture transport to Antarctica? (PDF 1.6 MB) |
H. Dacre |
| 17:55 |
Frontal-wave cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic - A climatological characterization (PDF 4.4 MB) |
S. Schemm |
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| Session 3 – Insurance applications: risk assessment and quantification (convener: D. Stephenson) |
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| 8:45 |
A simple benchmark model for European Windstorm Losses (PDF 0.8 MB) |
G. Leoncini |
| 9:15 |
Representation of storm clustering in the Impact Forecasting European windstorm model (PDF 0.8 MB) |
A. Georgiadis |
| 9:30 |
Met Office European Windstorm Event Response Services (PDF 2.9 MB) |
B. Becker |
| 9:55 |
Developing a winter storm model for Europe: Challenges, potential solutions, and open issues (PDF 0.5 MB) |
D. Renggli |
| 10:10 |
A millennium simulation based NAO+ loss scenario incorporated in an insurance loss model |
I. Kuehnel |
| 10:25 |
How extreme can storms get in space and time? (PDF 2.4 MB) |
T. Economou |
| 10:40 |
20th Century extratropical cyclone climatology and risk assessment (PDF 4.4 MB) |
F. Varino |
| 11:25 |
Breakout groups |
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1. Enhancements in understanding the dynamics of storm development |
H. Wernli |
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2. Climate Variability and Change of storms? |
D. Stephenson |
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3. Potential of predicting extreme events? |
C. Raible |
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4. From storms to impacts – what is missing? |
S. Dierer |
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5. Bridging the gap between cutting edge research and (re)insurance applications: Wish list for a better EU windstorm model? |
G. Leoncini |
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| Session 4 – Impacts of mid-latitude storms (convener: C. Raible) |
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| 14:00 |
High resolution weather models for storm simulations: uncertainty of results and impact on loss simulations (PDF 2.1 MB) |
S. Dierer |
| 14:30 |
Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate (PDF 2.4 MB) |
J. Pinto |
| 16:30 |
Past, present and future impact of Vb-cyclones on extreme precipitation over Central Europe (PDF 13.6 MB) |
M. Messmer |
| 16:45 |
To Warn or not to Warn: That is the risky question! Perspectives on uncertainty in weather warnings. (PDF 1.5 MB) |
M. Goeber |
| 17:00 |
Exploring nearly one millennium scenarios of extreme rainfall through dynamically downscaling paleo-climatic simulations (PDF 12.2 MB) |
J. Gomez-Navarro |
| 17:15 |
Analysis of synoptic conditions leading to positive and negative sea level extremes along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea (PDF 4.4 MB) |
P. Lionello |
| 17:30 |
Modelling dependency in extremal windstorm footprints (PDF 37.5 MB) |
L. Dawkins |
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| Session 5 – Predictability of extreme events (convener: O. Martius) |
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| 8:45 |
Return times, Dispersion and Memory in Extremes of Mid-latitude Vorticity (PDF 4.2 MB) |
R. Blender |
| 9:15 |
Vortex-vortex interaction between Hurricane Nadine (2012) and an Atlantic cutoff dropping the predictability over the Mediterranean (PDF 1.8 MB) |
F. Pantillon |
| 9:30 |
Predictability of Extratropical Cyclones and Windstorms on Seasonal Timescales (PDF 3.3 MB) |
G. Leckebusch |
| 9:55 |
Cyclonic Windstorms Morphology, Model Representation and Predictability (PDF 3.1 MB) |
T. Hewson |
| 10:10 |
Statistical simulation of extreme European windstorms and other natural hazard events (PDF 4.2 MB) |
B. Youngman |
| 10:25 |
A novel metric to assess the “extremeness” of cyclones (PDF 2.6 MB) |
C. Grams |
| 10:40 |
Predictability and variability of sting jets in extreme windstorms (PDF 3.1 MB) |
S. Gray |
