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Oeschger Centre

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Oliver Schenker – Models

Oliver SchenkerComputer models are tools central to climate research and play an important role in the work of many scientists at the Oeschger Centre. Reconstructing the climate of the past would be unthinkable without sophisticated models and statistical procedures. Models can also be used to calculate how the climate will develop in the future, depending on varying scenarios of economic and social development – or, conversely, what effects climate change will have on the economy. Climate economist Oliver Schenker studies the interaction of climate change and international trade. Climate change will cause a shortage of certain goods, making them more expensive and affecting the economic performance of a country. For his computer simulations, Oliver Schenker has developed a model that depicts trade between 15 world regions and incorporates the climate predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The model presupposes that each region will adapt its trade so that it can obtain necessary goods at the lowest possible price. His calculations show that, indirectly, the economies of countries such as Switzerland will be affected more strongly by climate change than previously thought. This is information which is important when it comes to costbenefit analyses relevant to policymaking on climate change issues.

University of Bern | Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research | Falkenplatz 16 | CH-3012 Bern | info@oeschger.unibe.ch | Tel +41 31 631 31 45 
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